ANZ FMCG suppliers: Crown Holdings (CCK-US) - AMC/ORA/BXB read-through from 2Q26 results

研报英文原文证据摘录

ANZ FMCG suppliers: Crown Holdings (CCK-US) - AMC/ORA/BXB read-through from 2Q26 results

Goldman Sachs Australia Industrials

Why is this relevant?

Crown Holdings (CCK-US, Not Covered) is a global packaging company that

manufactures rigid-metal packaging for FMCG customers. CCK’s beverage can business

provides a useful read-through for our covered names Amcor (AMC) and Brambles (BXB)

given overlap in end-markets, customers, and geographies. For AMC, its rigid packaging

segment represents ~43% of group revenue, with exposure across North America

(~56%), Europe (~33%), Latin America (~8%), and Asia (~4%). For BXB, CCK’s volume

and sales trend offers insights into broader FMCG demand and supply-chain throughput.

While markets are geographically distinct, Crown also provides cans category

read-through for ORA. CCK’s 2Q26 results speak to improved health in the cans category

across the broader market and while North America and Europe volumes remained

robust, management remains cautious on broader consumer sentiment going forward.

Price Target Risks and Methodology - Amcor

We are Buy-rated on AMC. Our 12-month target price of A$81.40 is based on an

equally-weighted blend of: 1) a DCF valuation, which values AMC at A$86.80/share; and

2) an NTM EV/EBIT, which values AMC at A$76.00/share. We believe our valuation

methodology appropriately accounts for near-term earnings (via NTM EV/EBIT applied

to NTM+1 EBIT), whilst also balancing this against the longer-term value (via DCF). This is

consistent with our broader Industrials coverage. Key risks: Currency sensitivity,

geographic revenue concentration, synergy realization risk, single-use plastic

sustainability concerns, sustained economic weakness in key markets, and raw material

and trade policy risks.