Consumer stands tall thru turbulent 1H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Consumer stands tall thru turbulent 1H26

Accessible version

Industry Report

Industry Overview

Resilient consumer dodges macro volatility; 1H26 review 17 July 2026

1H26 was defined by elevated geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict, episodic tariff & High Grade Credit

policy uncertainty, periods of heavy supply with AI-related capex needs, and an uptick in United States

M&A activity. This was offset by a steady economic backdrop, durable consumer spend, Consumer & Retail

reassuring corporate earnings, and a supportive technical backdrop (yields & credit

inflows). IG spreads widened through the spring (+21bps at peak) as tariffs, higher oil Table of Contents

prices, stagflation concerns, and record supply pressured markets, before a strong rally 1H26 Consumer & Retail returns summary 2

in April/May fully retraced near YTD tights. IG ended 1H26 at 76 OAS, -3bps tighter vs

Summary 2

YE25 (+1% return, +63bps excess return). Within Consumer, performance was mixed:

Consumer & Retail vs. High Grade 2

Retail lagged overall due to its quality skew in addition to AMZN supply & lack of

recovery from home improvement vs. discounters & specialty outperformed. Staples Spread change y/y (OAS) 3

performance was in-line with IG as Food was pressured by rising input costs, M&A and Sector relative value: OAS 4

crossover risks while Tobacco outperformed (again). Cyclicals overall trailed both IG and 1H26 spread charts (OAS) 5

Non-Cyclicals by 25-30bps on total & excess return. On characteristics, BBBs (+88bps Total returns (%) 6

ER) beat single-A’s (+51bps ER) and 3-7yr maturities offered the most attractive ERs Excess returns (bps) 7

(+71-74bps). As a % of the index, BBBs mix fell -70ps y/y to 44.1% and <5yr maturities Index composition 8

mix rose +40bps y/y to 41.5% vs.