India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Improvement in June activity; Raising Q2 CY26 GDP tracking estimate

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India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Improvement in June activity; Raising Q2 CY26 GDP tracking estimate

Economics Research

21 July 2026 | 9:40PM IST

India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Improvement in June activity;

Raising Q2 CY26 GDP tracking estimate

June high-frequency indicators suggest a sequential improvement in activity, with Santanu Sengupta

+91(22)6616-9042 |

consumption indicators strengthening across both rural and urban segments. Pump santanu.sengupta@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

fuel consumption growth has risen above pre-conflict levels despite June being the

Arjun Varma

first full month of higher retail fuel prices. On the investment side, manufacturing +91(22)6616-9043 |

and construction activity also continued to improve, supported by easing supply arjun.varma@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

constraints, including the restoration of commercial LPG supplies to the industrial

sector to pre-conflict levels.

Reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum across manufacturing,

construction, and services, we raise our Q2 CY26 real GDP tracking estimate by

0.2pp to 6.9% yoy. This mechanically raises our CY26 and FY27 real GDP growth

forecasts by 0.1pp each, to 6.9% yoy and 6.6% yoy, respectively. While the incoming

activity data supports a modest upside to our real GDP growth forecast, the outlook

remains sensitive to weather-related uncertainties and renewed escalation of

geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

We discuss high frequency activity indicators for June below.

Consumption: Demand remains resilient

n Consumption activity indicators improved in June. Rural activity indicators

improved, with two-wheeler registrations (Exhibit 4) and major agricultural

exports growth increasing to a three-month and a nine-month high respectively.