What‘s priced in: SARB will likely hike this week, CBT and NBH to cut

研报英文原文证据摘录

What‘s priced in: SARB will likely hike this week, CBT and NBH to cut

Accessible version

What’s priced in

SARB will likely hike this week, CBT and

NBH to cut

In Hungary, the central bank meets on July 21. The market is pricing a 25bp cut for the 20 July 2026

meeting. Our economist, Mai Doan, forecast the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut GEM FI Strategy

25bp on July 21. We keep our YE2027 policy rate forecast at 4.5% but see some Global

downside risks if fiscal delivers. See report: Hungary Watch: Trip notes – EUR anchor

firm, fiscal test ahead 09 July 2026. Claudio Irigoyen Global Economist

BofAS

In South Africa, the central bank meets on July 23. Our economist, Tatonga Rusike, claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

forecasts the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to hike one more time and David Hauner, CFA >>

take policy rate to 7.25%. Headline inflation remains above 4% while inflation Global EM FI/FX Strategist MLI (UK)

expectations from 2Q were weaker than baselines in the medium-term horizons, david.hauner@bofa.com

reflecting some de-anchoring from target. Claudio Piron

Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist

In Türkiye, the central bank (CBT) meets on July 23. Our economist, Hande Kucuk, sees Merrillclaudio.piron@bofa.comLynch (Singapore)

end-year inflation at 29.5% and expect effective easing in the Turkish Lira Overnight Pedro Diaz

Reference Rate (TLREF) to start in July, gradually reaching 37% by the time of the Caribbean Economist

September MPC meeting. We then factor in one 100bp cut in October to 36% to end the BofASpdiaz2@bofa.com

year (versus 37% previously). GEMs FI Strategy & Economics

See Team Page for List of Analysts

Chart 1: 12-month priced-in policy rate change vs BofA forecasts

Our forecasts are more dovish than market expectations

125 125

75 57 54 75