Organic growth slowdown could limit re-rating potential; reiterate Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Organic growth slowdown could limit re-rating potential; reiterate Neutral

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Netwealth Group

Organic growth slowdown could limit re-

rating potential; reiterate Neutral

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 26.40 AUD | Price: 23.48 AUD

Where have the flows gone? 20 July 2026

We reiterate our Neutral rating on NWL and make modest changes to our forecasts after Equity

a slightly weaker than expected 4Q26 update. Custodial gross flows of A$8.4bn were up

10.9% Y/Y, while FY26 gross flows up 12.7% Y/Y. However custodial net flows of

Key ChangesA$3.1bn in 4Q26 were down 15.5% Y/Y, with FY26 net flows down 2.3% Y/Y. NWL

flagged elevated outflows from a small number of UHNW accounts but reiterated these (A$) Previous Current

underlying relationships remain on platform. NWL also attributed a softer 4Q to Price Obj. 27.00 26.40

heightened investor uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and recent Federal tax 2026E EPS 0.57 0.56

changes. Although gross flow growth remains robust, a meaningful slowdown in net 2027E EPS 0.61 0.60

flows is disappointing, even after adjusting for a quieter 4Q. Which begs the question:

where have the flows gone? Stabilisation of flow trends across other wealth platforms is Freya Kong >>

Research Analyst

a likely explanation, and could remain a growth headwind in future periods. Merrill Lynch (Australia)

+61 2 9226 5840

freya.kong@bofa.comPrivate wealth expansion is good, but details less clear

NWL is leveraging its strong platform technology to expand into private wealth and Mitchell Hawker >>

individual HIN solutions. Based on the net flow outlook uplift (A$18-20bn guidance for Merrill Lynch (Australia)

FY27 vs A$17bn VA Cons), we estimate A$1-3bn (BofAe A$2.5bn) of additional net flows mitchell.hawker@bofa.com