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US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – July 21, 2026
研报英文原文证据摘录
US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – July 21, 2026
MORNING MEETING SUMMARY
US Equity Strategy - Market outlook: higher growth not priced (Keith Parker)
SUMMARY: We are bullish US equities and target SPX 8100 in 2026 and 8900 in Email: keith.parker@ubs.com
2027, as the earnings fueled rally continues with NTM EPS forecast to rise ~25% Phone: +1-212-713 3296
the next 18mo. Forward sales growth CAGRs have risen to the highest level since
before 2003, with the recent acceleration comparable to early-cycle periods in
2003, 2009 and 2020. Our framework shows fair value P/E above 24x, leaving
SPX ~18% below implied despite improving growth and CFROI. Markets appear
to be pricing slower growth, lower margins and/or higher rates, while earnings
revisions, profitability and long-term growth expectations continue to move
higher. The P/E to sales CAGR ratio has fallen near the lows of 2008-12.
Drawdown risks from geopolitics, rates and numerous AI issues remain, but we
see attractive asymmetry for equities in the months and year ahead.
US Equity Strategy - Sector themes+trades: flywheels at a discount (Keith Parker)
SUMMARY: We believe the market is not fully pricing the reinforcing effects of Email: keith.parker@ubs.com
steepening demand curves, constrained capacity, rising cash flow, falling Phone: +1-212-713 3296
uncertainty and expanding financing activity. Several accelerating growth cycles
remain priced as transitory, while many slower-growth businesses continue to
trade on assumptions of durable growth and pricing power. In our view, the
opportunity is increasingly about owning underpriced inflections and avoiding
overpriced durability.
Tech+ shows the clearest evidence that faster growth is not fully reflected in
valuation.
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