US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – July 21, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – July 21, 2026

MORNING MEETING SUMMARY

US Equity Strategy - Market outlook: higher growth not priced (Keith Parker)

SUMMARY: We are bullish US equities and target SPX 8100 in 2026 and 8900 in Email: keith.parker@ubs.com

2027, as the earnings fueled rally continues with NTM EPS forecast to rise ~25% Phone: +1-212-713 3296

the next 18mo. Forward sales growth CAGRs have risen to the highest level since

before 2003, with the recent acceleration comparable to early-cycle periods in

2003, 2009 and 2020. Our framework shows fair value P/E above 24x, leaving

SPX ~18% below implied despite improving growth and CFROI. Markets appear

to be pricing slower growth, lower margins and/or higher rates, while earnings

revisions, profitability and long-term growth expectations continue to move

higher. The P/E to sales CAGR ratio has fallen near the lows of 2008-12.

Drawdown risks from geopolitics, rates and numerous AI issues remain, but we

see attractive asymmetry for equities in the months and year ahead.

US Equity Strategy - Sector themes+trades: flywheels at a discount (Keith Parker)

SUMMARY: We believe the market is not fully pricing the reinforcing effects of Email: keith.parker@ubs.com

steepening demand curves, constrained capacity, rising cash flow, falling Phone: +1-212-713 3296

uncertainty and expanding financing activity. Several accelerating growth cycles

remain priced as transitory, while many slower-growth businesses continue to

trade on assumptions of durable growth and pricing power. In our view, the

opportunity is increasingly about owning underpriced inflections and avoiding

overpriced durability.

Tech+ shows the clearest evidence that faster growth is not fully reflected in

valuation.