1H26 interim results preview/summer playbook; physical market updates

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H26 interim results preview/summer playbook; physical market updates

Accessible version

China Property

1H26 interim results preview/summer

playbook; physical market updates

Price Objective Change

July sales YoY growth improving; sector summer playbook 20 July 2026

Against easier comps, Jul property sales have shown improving YoY growth following the Equity

softening seen in June. We believe top-tier city markets remain in the early stages of China

bottoming out, although the recovery is only gradually filtering through to Tier 2 cities. Real Estate/Property

With 2Q26 GDP growth slowing in Q2, expectations for broader policy support have Karl Choi, CFA >>

increased. Any meaningful easing that helps alleviate macro demand concerns could Research Analyst

provide indirect support to the property sector in the near term, although property- Merrill+852 3508Lynch3108(Hong Kong)

specific measures are more likely around end-Sept, based on historical patterns. If the karl.choi@bofa.com

end-July Politburo meeting disappoints, the sector could remain range-bound in Aug Eric Du >>

Research Analyst

amid weak interim results and limited catalysts until the peak Sept selling season. Our Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

top picks remain CR Land (growing rental income), COLI (strong contracted sales), and +852 3508 3329

eric.du@bofa.com

C&D International (faster destocking and improving FY27–28E margins).

1H26 interim results preview Exhibit 1: PO change summary

We expect our top picks to report a 7% earnings YoY decline in 1H26 on average We lower POs for Seazen and Longfor

(broadly flat for CR Land, down 7% YoY for C&D International, and down 13% YoY for

New OldCOLI) but much weaker for the broader group. 1H26 results largely reflect low-margin

Longfor 8.5 9.5