A port in the utilization storm?

研报英文原文证据摘录

A port in the utilization storm?

Libre likely grows 8-8.5% until new catalyst occurs

In Q2, US Libre grew 8.4% (vs 9.2% Street), and we now model 8% in Q3, 8.5% in Q4,

and 8.5% FY. Street estimates suggest DXCM is taking a little share from ABT (0.4%

share loss vs 2025 Libre share of 44.5%), but the main driver of Libre is market growth

CMS coverage in the final stages of discussion

T2 NIT coverage is likely the most immediate unlock to accelerating growth. Coverage is

expected to expand access to 10 million Medicare beneficiaries. Discussions on CMS

coverage expansion are in “very advanced final stages” and all comments have been

positive. Exact timing is hard to predict but proposal could come in fall.

No impact to volumes from ACA

ABT not seeing ACA disenrollment and Medicaid leading to a decline in volumes because

Medicare, not Medicaid, drives MedTech procedure volumes (Medicare >2/3 of ABT's

U.S. cardio biz). Diagnostics are a forward-looking barometer and ABT data does not

show weakness (U.S. lab testing volumes stable even in states with the highest ACA

disenrollment). Since many ABT products are used for chronic conditions like

diabetes/cancer/cardio, these patients are less likely to forego insurance. On the high-

acuity side, demand is highly inelastic and patients will end up being treated regardless

of coverage status (HC system doesn't only treat patients with insurance).

EXAS disruption limited; 15% growth in ’26 still intact

In Q2, EXAS grew 13.3% (vs mid teens expectation). However, EXAS integration-related

disruption has been minimal and broadly in line with ABT’s expectations. There has been

some attrition (mainly back-office/ corporate overlap) and a small number of sales

representatives leaving but overall retention remains very high.