Global Metals Weekly: Copper demand is resilient, and so are the supply issues

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Global Metals Weekly: Copper demand is resilient, and so are the supply issues

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Global Metals Weekly

Copper demand is resilient, and so are the

supply issues

Sulfuric acid provides a lifeline, but risks remain 16 July 2026

Tight copper mine supply has constrained refined production – a key reason prices have Commodities

stayed resilient despite recent macro uncertainties. Indeed, China’s copper concentrate Global

imports have declined by 1% YoY YTD, and this has also pulled down refined production. Global Commodity Research

Deeply negative treatment and refining charges mean that smelters/refiners no longer BofA Europe (Madrid)

make money from their core business of processing mined supply into refined copper. Michael Widmer

What has saved them? The Iran war has driven up prices of sulfuric acid, a by-product in Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)

the downstream copper production process. The drawback? Should activity in the Middle +44 20 7996 0694

East normalise, the squeeze on smelters would likely intensify. michael.widmer@bofa.com

Danica Averion

Capex intensity, opex and incentive prices trending higher CommodityMLI (UK) Strategist

The headwinds to copper mine production have been driven by a range of factors. To danica_ana.averion@bofa.com

start with, even in nominal terms, i.e. not adjusted for inflation, mining capex runs below Francisco Blanch Commodity & Deriv Strategist

the levels seen 15 years ago. That said, cost inflation has been a persistent issue. The BofA Europe (Madrid)

structural decline in ore grades has, for instance, pushed up opex from around $1,500/t +34francisco.blanch@bofa.com91 514 3070

to $3,700/t at an average mine, all things equal. As a result, capex intensities, i.e. Rachel Wiser