2Q26 preview: strong quarter, few surprises

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 preview: strong quarter, few surprises

ision profit 2,972 975 1,602

competition in Germany and Belgium. Net profit* 1,822 664 1,140

Source: BofA Global Research. *Pre-AT1 dividend

ABN: 2028E targets likely upgraded in 2027; paid to wait BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

We forecast 2Q net profit of €616m, up 13% YoY, driven by 8% revenue growth, partly

offset by 2% higher costs and a normalised CoR. We see NII trends as broadly similar to

ING’s, and ABN has already indicated that it expects to upgrade 2026 guidance, a move Exhibit 2: Benelux banks’ valuations

that is somewhat reflected in consensus expectations (same for ING). In our view, the ING is fairly valued, we have Buy on ABN, KBC

investment case hinges on a potentially significant upgrade to Group ROTE from the

ING ABN KBCcurrently conservative 12% target, likely driven by the corporate banking overhaul

Rating Neutral Buy Buy

through substantial deleveraging of lower-return global banking exposures. We expect an PO (€) 30.5 44.5 140

upgrade to 2028 targets sometime next year, but investors are paid to wait, with a TSR 11% 25% 23%

>10% annual total yield that could be further enhanced by excess capital distributions. SBB yield (27-28E) 6.7% 7.7% 0%

KBC: Limited upside to cons; M&A the next key catalyst P/EP/E 27E28E 10.28.9 10.28.6 10.19.1

We forecast 2Q net profit of €1.2bn, up 19% YoY, driven by 11% revenue growth, partly P/TBV 26E 1.63 1.30 1.95

offset by 4% higher costs and a 10% lower CoR. We expect KBC to raise its 2026 NII P/TBV 27E 1.53 1.20 1.80

guidance towards cons at c.€7bn, although higher inflation-linked staff costs in Belgium Total yield 26E 7.9% 7.8% 5.7%

could lead to a modest cost guidance increase. Overall, management should reiterate its Total yield 27E 8.2% 9.3% 6.5%

medium-term targets.