Rates Technical Advantage: Pay bias meets seasonal receiving

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Rates Technical Advantage: Pay bias meets seasonal receiving

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Rates Technical Advantage

Pay bias meets seasonal receiving

Market Analysis

View: Tactical, choppy, pay bias meets seasonal receiving 20 July 2026

Daily charts of US yields favor higher rates due to uptrend continuation patterns with Technical Strategy

higher yield targets outstanding. While yield support levels hold, we suggest a tactical Global

pay bias. However, August seasonality argues for caution and may create short-term FICC and Equity

receiving opportunities into the US Labor Day weekend. US 5s30s formed a head-and- Paul Ciana, CMT

shoulders base that favors another leg steeper, but August seasonality isn’t supportive. Technical Strategist

BofAS

US 2Y Yield: Grind toward ~4.40%; wedge top a risk +1paul.ciana@bofa.com646 743 7014

The US 2Y yield remains in a narrow uptrend channel. The March-April continuation Jonathan Hartley, CMT

pattern targets 4.34-4.42% while yield support near 4.10% holds. However, a close TechnicalBofAS Strategist

below support would increase the risk of a rising wedge top, reinforcing a TD Sequential jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com

signal and divergence from RSI and MACD, with risk of a yield decline to 3.93%/3.82%.

US 5Y Yield: Uptrend supported; caution warranted BofA Global Research Reports

April and May-June continuation patterns target 4.48% and 4.66%, respectively. The

Title: Subtitle Primary Daterecent rise stalled at a long-term downtrend line connecting the Apr-2024 and Jan-2025

Author Publishedhighs. While above yield support at 4.21%, yield can resume higher. A close below 4.20%

would favor a retracement toward 4.12% and/or the 200-week SMA at about 4.02%. Commodities Technical Paul Ciana, 16 July 2026

Advantage: Gold’s lost CMT