Irish Banks H126 preview: H1 trends still good

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Irish Banks H126 preview: H1 trends still good

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Irish Banks

H126 preview: H1 trends still good

Estimate Change

Overall: Expect good H1 print from supportive trends 17 July 2026

We think Irish banks will product another set of good results at H1. On the lending side, Equity

loan growth is supportive both on the mortgage side and on the commercial side. Ireland

Housing completion in Ireland has also stepped up in recent quarters which should bode Banks-Multinational/Universal

well for Q2 and the rest of the year. On the deposit side, understandably there are Perlie Mong >>

increasing concerns around the competitive landscape, given the number of digital new Research Analyst

entrants coming into the market. The government’s plan to launch tax-advantaged MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 6717

savings and investment accounts (SIAs) also raises concerns on deposit outflow/ perlie.mong@bofa.com

migration going forward. We acknowledge these concerns, but so far there are limited

signs from the public data that deposit competition has increased materially in recent

months. Meanwhile, deposit migration to term has continued to slow.

All components of NII in focus

We think NII will be the key focus area this quarter. Questions on NII will likely centre

around (i) 2026 guidance – both AIB and Bank of Ireland guided on 2026 NII at FY25, and

based on 2% ECB rate, (ii) 2027-2028 guidance, (iii) balance sheet growth, (iv)

management commentary around the competitive landscape. We expect both banks to

increase 2026 guidance given the ECB hiked rates in June. Bank of Ireland has also given

2027 and 2028 NII guidance at FY25 – and while we see upside (our estimates are

above guidance) consensus is also already above current guidance. On balance sheet