The Oil Gusher: 2Q26 Playbook Part II: Better cash conversion, but no buyback upgrades

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The Oil Gusher: 2Q26 Playbook Part II: Better cash conversion, but no buyback upgrades

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The Oil Gusher

2Q26 Playbook Part II: Better cash

conversion, but no buyback upgrades

Earnings Preview

Key takeaways 17 July 2026

Equity• Big Oil updates have resulted in +/-20% revisions to our earnings estimates for 2Q26

Pan-Euro

- averaging zero vs. +4% in consensus Oils

• However, we leave our FY26+ estimates mostly unchanged and believe it is too early

to expect buyback upgrades alongside 2Q26 Christopher Kuplent >> Research Analyst

MLI (UK)• Reiterate preference for quality (TTE, GALP) > beta (BP, REP, Neste) given limited +44 20 7995 8222

extrapolation of FCF 'windfalls' into 2H26 christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)2Q26 updates leave consensus upside in cash flow +44 20 7996 7109

Now that BP, GALP and TTE completed Europe’s Big Oil trading updates this week, we matt.smith1@bofa.com

update our Playbook into results kicking off next week (see timetable in Exhibit 66): Cian Evans-Cowie >>

Compared to the end of the quarter and ahead of any trading updates, we have changed ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

our Big Oil 2Q26 earnings estimates in a range of +/-20%, but averaging zero across our +44 20 7995 0940

cian.evans-cowie@bofa.com

coverage. This compares to +5% average upward VA consensus revisions to now sit

inline with BofA. But our updated estimates continue to show consensus as too cautious

on cash flows vs. earnings: We are now 15% ahead of VA on the former and inline on the Jargon buster:

latter – with greatest upside at BP and Shell and greatest downside at Neste (see Exhibit

EQNR: Equinor13). However, we reiterate our warning that investors should remain cautious and not