Asia Economic Weekly: China Housing – More than a bounce, less than a recovery

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Asia Economic Weekly: China Housing – More than a bounce, less than a recovery

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Asia Economic Weekly

China Housing – More than a bounce, less

than a recovery

This week in focus 17 July 2026

Across Asia, external demand continues to support growth, while domestic demand GEM Fixed Income Strategy &

remains uneven. In China, export growth stays resilient, although domestic demand Economics

remains still under pressure. In Singapore, 2Q GDP growth was better than expected at Asia

5.7% yoy, which keeps policy normalization in focus. In Korea, the growth resilience and

above-target inflation led to the rate hike to 2.75% by the BoK, first time since Jan Table of Contents

2023. In India, inflation remains elevated and the trade deficit has widened on stronger This Week in Focus 2

energy imports.

China in Focus 3

China Housing: More than a bounce, less than a recovery Data Preview 3

China housing is showing clearer green shoots in Tier-1 cities, especially Beijing and Macro Forecasts 3

Shanghai, where stronger sales, sequential price improvement, falling secondary-home Research Analysts 3

inventory and better rental yields suggest the rebound is more credible than the late-

2024 policy bounce. But the recovery remains too narrow to call a national bottom: Helen Qiao

national sales and prices are still weak, and top cities are too small to lift aggregates China & Asia Economist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

unless momentum spreads to stronger Tier-2 markets. History suggests full recovery helen.qiao@bofa.com

needs more than Tier-1 sentiment spillover, as the 2015–18 cycle was amplified by Izumi Devalier

shantytown cash payouts, stronger price expectations and mortgage credit expansion. Japan Economist

BofAS Japan