Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.O): Preannounces FQ4‘26: Lower Revs but Higher GM

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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.O): Preannounces FQ4‘26: Lower Revs but Higher GM

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21 Jul 2026 19:26:21 ET │ 12 pages

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.O)

Preannounces FQ4’26: Lower Revs but Higher GM

CITI'S TAKE

SMCI preannounced FQ4’26 results, citing revenue now expected towards

low end of $11.0-$12.5B guidance range, while gross margins now expected

in the 15%-17% range, significantly above 8.2%-8.4% guide, largely on Neutral / High Risk

favorable customer/product mix. Preliminary commentary suggests similar Price (21 Jul 26 16:00) US$25.50

dynamics to F3Q results. Additionally, backlog rose at quarter end to record

Target price US$33.00levels with total new orders of $60B+ received during the qtr. This reflects

strong order momentum, particularly in light of the company’s early-June Expected share price return 29.4%

disclosure that it had received ~$39bln in orders. We remain constructive Expected dividend yield 0.0%

on AI demand momentum from neo clouds, sovereigns, along with

Expected total return 29.4%enterprise agentic AI-led infrastructure refresh benefitting server hardware

OEMs. Specific to SMCI, we expect investors to focus on timing of backlog Market Cap US$16,494M

conversion, margin volatility, and working capital dynamics, in addition to

the earnings power that flows through to shareholders from the recent

equity dilution. SMCI scheduled its earnings call for 8/11. Maintain

Neutral/High Risk. Price Performance

(RIC: SMCI.O, BB: SMCI US)

We note our recent headquarters visit with mgmt highlighted that, while the margin

profile is improving, customer mix and order timing are key variables. Specifically,

customer diversification should occur over time, though near-term can be impacted

by orders from larger customers that need to be fulfilled.