Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST.O): Model Update: Refining TP to $61; Maintain Buy/HR

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Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST.O): Model Update: Refining TP to $61; Maintain Buy/HR

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21 Jul 2026 16:05:00 ET │ 17 pages

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST.O)

Model Update: Refining TP to $61; Maintain Buy/HR

CITI'S TAKE

We remain Buy/HR-rated on UPST, believing both funding and consumer

credit conditions are conducive for continued loan growth strength. Recent

data suggests both delinquencies and CNLs remain below 2022-23 vintage Buy / High Risk

years, while Upstart’s UMI index continues to hover in the 1.40-1.50 range, Price (20 Jul 26 16:00) US$28.82

down modestly YoY and up ~0.10 QoQ. Monthly data suggests $4.23bn in

2Q production – up 50% YoY and 3-4% above current VA consensus Target price US$61.00↓

estimates and coincides with UPST’s largest ABS issuance ($320m) since from US$80.00

2022 last month. Model-wise, we rebuilt our fee revenue driver, raised Expected share price return 111.7%FY’26 revenue 3-4%, and shifted 2Q’26 Adj. EBITDA into 2H’26 (but raise

FY’26 EBITDA ~2%). We lower our TP primarily on revised assumptions for Expected dividend yield 0.0%

market growth and UPST share, reflecting more of a mid-cycle trajectory. Expected total return 111.7%

The stock’s current discount vs. our intrinsic estimate (and current Market Cap US$2,758Mproduction levels) suggests investors are factoring a 2H’26 material decline

in consumer credit health vs. stable conditions currently observed.

Model Update and Driver Rebuild — We have rebuilt our production estimate driver

Price Performanceto now better account for Upstart’s updated disclosures. Along with better-than-

expected 2Q’26 production, we lift our FY’26 funded principal 11% reflecting 49% (RIC: UPST.O, BB: UPST US)

YoY growth and increase our FY’26 revenue 3.4% to $1,423m, slightly above the