AUSTRALIA METALS & MINING: GOLD GMD merger appears accretive vs. baseline ASPIRE 500 and VAU outlooks; Reinstate GMD at Buy, RRL at Neutral

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AUSTRALIA METALS & MINING: GOLD GMD merger appears accretive vs. baseline ASPIRE 500 and VAU outlooks; Reinstate GMD at Buy, RRL at Neutral

Equity Research

20 July 2026 | 9:54AM AEST

AUSTRALIA METALS & MINING: GOLD

GMD merger appears accretive vs. baseline ASPIRE 500 and VAU

outlooks; Reinstate GMD at Buy, RRL at Neutral

Following GMD’s 6-Jul proposal, and RRL electing not to match the offer, GMD and Hugo Nicolaci

+61(2)9321-8323 |

VAU have agreed to merge via a Scheme of Arrangement, with implementation hugo.nicolaci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

targeted Oct/Nov-26. GMD reaffirmed the strategic rationale, though a strategic

Paul Youngreview and new plan is targeted for 1H CY27 to better outline a combined outlook, +61(2)9321-8302 |

including production uplifts/LoM extensions, capex savings, mine plan optimisations, paul.young1@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

and potential non-core divestments. GMD noted they will also provide some FY27 Marcus Dosanjh

guidance with the upcoming quarterly result. +61(2)9321-8780marcus.dosanjh@gs.com|

We conduct an illustrative scenario analysis to assess the outlook for a MergeCo

scenario vs. our assumptions around GMD’s baseline ASPIRE 500 plan on our

bottom up mine/mill/cost modeling within, all else equal. We see the merger as

potentially accretive, with MergeCo lifting gold production by ~30-80kozpa to

~690-780kozpa over FY27-28E vs. a pro forma of our baseline GMD/VAU outlooks

with a ~10% lower AISC of ~A$2,850/oz, with an EBITDA lift of ~15-25% over the

same period (before any mine plan/cost optimisation). On a 10yr outlook, we see

aggregate production broadly similar vs. the pro forma despite not having the Tower

Hill mill/deferred Laverton mill expansion, while longer-term production declines