2Q26 Preview: Upgrading AENA, downgrading Fraport

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2Q26 Preview: Upgrading AENA, downgrading Fraport

Barclays | European Airports

from leisure demand shifting towards the Western Mediterranean at times of Middle East

disruption. Governance and political risks remain, but we are comfortable becoming more

constructive as regulatory visibility improves. We raise our price target to €28.50 and upgrade

AENA to Overweight.

Fraport: Downgrade to EW; Frankfurt’s recovery looks less attractive. We downgrade

Fraport to Equal Weight and lower our price target to €71. In the near term, momentum has

weakened across the group: Frankfurt traffic and capacity remain soft, Terminal 3 raises costs in

Aviation, lower passenger growth constrains the scale of upside from improving Terminal Three

retail and Ground Handling remains loss-making ahead of a new Lufthansa contract.

International assets provide some support, particularly Greece, but the outlook is less uniform,

with disappointing traffic momentum at Lima and renewed regional uncertainty at Antalya.

Free cash flow should still turn positive as capex falls, but we now expect a more moderate pace

of cash generation than previously anticipated. Longer term, Lufthansa’s allocation of aircraft

between Frankfurt, Munich and other Lufthansa group hubs creates uncertainty over the timing

and extent of Frankfurt’s traffic recovery, while we remain cautious on Condor’s ability to offset

that pressure sustainably. Fraport is likely to retain the Lufthansa ground-handling contract

given the lack of operationally ready alternatives, but this does not guarantee a material

earnings uplift. Higher handling charges are needed to restore Fraport's handling profitability,

yet they would also raise Lufthansa’s cost per turn at Frankfurt relative to other group hubs,