MEXICO REAL ESTATE: INDUSTRIAL 2Q26 Markets Analysis: USMCA Uncertainty Drives Demand Headwinds, Yet Material Leasing Pipeline Growth

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MEXICO REAL ESTATE: INDUSTRIAL 2Q26 Markets Analysis: USMCA Uncertainty Drives Demand Headwinds, Yet Material Leasing Pipeline Growth

Equity Research

20 July 2026 | 8:05PM BRT

MEXICO REAL ESTATE: INDUSTRIAL

2Q26 Markets Analysis: USMCA Uncertainty Drives Demand Headwinds,

Yet Material Leasing Pipeline Growth

Our take: Our analysis of 2Q26 Mexico industrial market data from CBRE shows a Jorel Guilloty

+55(11)3372-3522 |

clear dichotomy: while demand remain challenged, particularly in most Northern jorel.guilloty@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

markets, the potential leasing pipeline grew by 55% y/y to 1.9 mm sqm (pipeline of

Igor Machadoprojects in the market for next 12-16 months). In other words, while the short term +55(11)3372-0227 |

looks weak the medium/long term could be showing green shoots. The dichotomy is igor.machado@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

encapsulated by USMCA uncertainty impacting automotive demand while tech

cluster (semiconductors, AI and data centers) potential demand is driving the

potential leasing pipeline. Ciudad Juarez has already seen the benefits of the tech

cluster, as the one market with clear q/q declines in vacancy of 130 bps, with nearly

half of the absorption YTD coming from computer manufacturing. This trend is one

we will continue to monitor and will be a focus for the 2Q26 earnings season as we:

1) try to understand if this tech demand could be enough to mitigate the impact of

USMCA uncertainty; 2) understand if the impact of this demand goes beyond Juarez

which CBRE highlighted as a key beneficiary from tech demand tailwinds; and 3)

understand how the companies are gauging USMCA outcomes particularly given the

ongoing review negotiations. Among our coverage companies, Fibra Prologis, Vesta