CHINA JINMAO (0817.HK) 1H26 Preview: consolidate contract sales performance to support earnings‘ improvement; Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

CHINA JINMAO (0817.HK) 1H26 Preview: consolidate contract sales performance to support earnings‘ improvement; Buy

Goldman Sachs China Jinmao (0817.HK)

n Key to watch next: 1) inventory impairment impacts on profitability inflection

timeline, and company’s de-stocking/inventory revitalization progress; 2)

sustainability of contract sales growth momentum in 2H26E and executions of new

launches in 3Q26E (c.10 projects located core cities); 3) company’s strategy of

re-accelerating land sourcing through multiple channels.

Valuation: Jinmao trades at a 27% discount to end-26E NAV, 0.4X 2026E P/B and 4%

2026E-28E average dividend yield vs. SOE coverage average 36%/0.5X/2%. Maintain

Buy. Key risks: Delays in land sales or unexpected austerity measures to cap land sale

prices would result in earnings volatility and below-expectation margins; given its high

land cost in high-tier cities, execution slippages in expansion may compress future

margin prospects and lead to balance sheet deterioration; weak execution of its

recurring business (property leasing, hotel and property management) that potentially

leads to topline and earnings downside and weakening visibility for asset monetization

opportunities; diminishing support from parent Sinochem Group.

Investment Thesis

Jinmao is a subsidiary of state-owned Sinochem Corporation, ranked 9th on the 2025

Chinese property developers list (in terms of sales, ranked by CRIC). We have a Buy rating

on Jinmao driven by: 1) its healthy balance sheet (sits in the green camp under 3RL) with

high quality land banks (including those from city operation projects) leveraged on the

parent SOE Sinochem group; and 2) increasing revenue contribution from recurring

rental/property management segments etc., supporting gradual earnings recovery post