Viper Energy Inc (VNOM.O): Pre-Earnings Thoughts & Model Revision

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Viper Energy Inc (VNOM.O): Pre-Earnings Thoughts & Model Revision

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20 Jul 2026 21:35:44 ET │ 12 pages

Viper Energy Inc (VNOM.O)

Pre-Earnings Thoughts & Model Revision

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We update our model with revised estimates into earnings, resulting in

discretionary cash flow of ~$519.3mm which is roughly in line with VA Price (20 Jul 26 16:00) US$44.36

consensus estimates for ~$515.7mm with the minor difference being Target price US$57.00

driven by our slightly better pricing assumptions and their production mix. Expected share price return 28.5%

We model oil production at the top-end of the range which, despite Expected dividend yield 4.8%

expected weakness on the natural gas side, pushes our view for total Expected total return 33.3%

production also to the top-end of the range. We expect few surprises from

Market Cap US$15,806M operating expenses or pricing realizations. We anticipate the call focusing

again on management's view towards further M&A opportunities as well

as any potential shift in their cash return strategy. We see them well

positioned into the price and retain our Buy rating and $57/share target Paul DiamondAC

price given their stable business model, line-of-sight to their operational +1-212-816-0638

cadence and close relationship with their parent - balanced against paul.diamond@citi.com

recent pricing volatility and macro uncertainty.

Scott Gruber

+1-212-816-8919

Updates — We update our model to incorporate: 1) production moderating slightly scott.gruber@citi.com

QoQ to ~127.2k boe/d with oil flat QoQ at ~64.9k bbls/d and natural gas down

marginally on likely shut-ins - all of which are roughly in line with consensus

estimates but with out oil slightly higher and natural gas slightly lower, 2) minor