Türkiye — Anatomy of an Export Slowdown

研报英文原文证据摘录

Türkiye — Anatomy of an Export Slowdown

Economics Research

20 July 2026 | 11:49AM BST

CEEMEA ECONOMICS ANALYST

n After recording one of the strongest export growth rates among EMs from 2009 Clemens Grafe

+44(20)7774-3435 |

to 2019, Türkiye’s real exports largely stagnated in 2022-24 and started to fall clemens.grafe@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

from H2 2025. This weakness has driven the recent deterioration in the current

Basak Edizgil

account deficit, which we expect to reach 3.5% of GDP (US$60bn) in 2026. +44(20)7774-9878 |

basak.edizgil@gs.com

n We break down the fall in export growth by category and destination to shed

light on its drivers. We find that most of the decline was initially concentrated in

intermediate goods exports, followed by consumer goods, whereas capital goods

have performed better. In intermediate goods, Türkiye lost export market share

entirely to China and mostly in non-European markets. By contrast, in consumer

goods, Turkish losses were captured mostly by non-Chinese exporters (in

particular the CEE), especially in European markets. Recently these more

structural trends have been exacerbated by a cyclical decline in exports to both

Europe and the Middle East owing to slower activity in these regions.

n Competition from China is not a headwind for Türkiye alone, but Türkiye is

relatively more exposed because the structure of its exports is relatively similar

to that of China, especially in intermediate and consumer goods. While CEE

countries display a comparable degree of export similarity, their exporters are

more protected by the single market.

n However, Türkiye’s export prices have also risen more than those of its other

competitors, such as Poland and Egypt, especially since 2019, adding to the

headwind for Turkish exports.