Truly (£40bn), Madly (quality BD), Deeply (oncology portfolio)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Truly (£40bn), Madly (quality BD), Deeply (oncology portfolio)

significantly underappreciated pipeline opportunities, with the full potential to be revealed over

time, perhaps representing a meaningful >£6bn peak opportunity combined. Exhibit 1 - Our Revenue Estimates vs

Consensus

Mo' from Mo-rez: The commercial opportunity for focus indications of platinum-resistant/ 40,000

platinum sensitive ovarian cancer and 2nd+line endometrial cancer comfortably underpins the 38,000

(£m) 36,000current cons expectations alone (JEFe £1.7bn/$2.25bn WW peak sales vs cons £1.5bn). Whilst

data in these settings are already impressive, we flag there is potential blue-sky upside from Revenue 34,000

development as a maintenance therapy in earlier lines, which could lead to £3.7+bn / $5+bn 32,000

peak potential for the asset. 30,0002024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E

JEFe VisibleAlpha cons

.

Ris-rez is overlooked, with ESMO in Oct potentially to spur interest: We argue cons overlooks Source: Jefferies estimates, VisibleAlpha

the sizable opportunity in small cell lung cancer alone, with our unadjusted peak sales of

£2.2bn / $3bn almost double that of cons $1.6bn. We anticipate ESMO in late-Oct could be

a meaningful event for the asset, with perhaps additional datasets to be presented and the

broader strategy discussed.

Velzatinib and neladalkib carry meaningful upside potential into 2030+: Both assets have

the ability to move into earlier lines of therapy (1L GIST and 1L ALK+ NSCLC) with substantial

prolongation of duration of therapy offering >£3bn upside revenue potential. We don't think

this is appreciated by the market.

Resume at Buy: We value GSK on a c.10% discount to the 2027E sector PE of c.13-13.5x, with