Citi‘s Most Read – FICC

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Citi‘s Most Read – FICC

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Citi's Most Read – FICC

July 13 - July 19 20 Jul 2026 05:49:31 ET

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Global FX Strategy - Asymmetry validated -- but will this last?

DXY has recovered a majority of its losses despite a significant miss in US CPI. This

validates the asymmetry we held into the print, i.e., USD follow-through on the day

would be more significant on a beat than a miss. US-Iran conflict re-escalation

and Fed rhetoric that still leans hawkish are likely contributing factors. Further

pullback in rate differentials -- and subsequent USD downside -- could thus

require additional softer inflation prints and greater certainty over conflict

resolution. While this means USD-positive asymmetry can persist, particularly

after the latest Fed repricing, the shelf life is now shorter and our base case

remains more neutral. In the meantime, we think this backdrop favors FX carry (we

remain short EURBRL and short AUDBRL) and NOKSEK upside as our preferred

escalation play.

Daniel Tobon | Brian Levine | Osamu Takashima

Japan FX - Will Japanese pension funds repatriate investment?

As hinted by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama last week, the Takaichi

government may be considering a change to the policy mix portfolios of the GPIF

and other public pension funds. This is no surprise given the government’s efforts

to defend the JPY and the overall direction of its economic policy. However, given

the relationship with the US, a large-scale change that could adversely impact

overseas markets would be difficult, at least in the near term. More likely is an

incremental approach that makes use of the allowances for deviation from the

basic portfolio, in our view. Corporate pension funds are unlikely to directly follow