Hypera SA (HYPE3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: No news is good news?

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Hypera SA (HYPE3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: No news is good news?

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20 Jul 2026 05:31:34 ET │ 12 pages

Hypera SA (HYPE3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: No news is good news?

CITI'S TAKE

We refresh our HYPE model ahead of what we expect to be a largely

uneventful 2Q26 results, though our numbers currently suggest ~6%

downside to VA consensus EBITDA, as solid sell-out trends (CitiE +7.5%) Buy

and improving gross margins (CitiE 62.0%) are partially offset by front- Price (17 Jul 26 18:00) R$21.19loaded marketing expenses in the World Cup season. Working capital

should nevertheless remain under control, and we forecast a healthy FCFE Target price R$28.00

of R$281mn. With the stock trading at 6.2x 2027e headline P/E (or 10.3x on Expected share price return 32.1%

a more restrictive cash/ex-tax incentives basis), we believe valuation also Expected dividend yield 5.7%reflects limited confidence in the earnings denominator. In that context,

estimate de-risking alone should be sufficient to move the stock, Expected total return 37.8%

underpinning our 'no news is good news' thesis. That said, we concede that Market Cap R$14,918M

continued price cuts across semaglutide players (Valor, 6-Mar-2025) US$2,937Mfurther cloud Semavy's potential topline/EBITDA accretion, which, to be

fair, has broadly been treated as an optionality across the Street.

Model update — We are fine-tuning our HYPE model ahead of 2Q26 results, keeping

Price Performanceour numbers largely unchanged and TP at R$28.0/Sh.

(RIC: HYPE3.SA, BB: HYPE3 BZ)

Leandro Bastos, CFA AC

+55-11-4009-3125

Estimates 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q126A Q226E Q326E Q426E

leandro.bastos@citi.com

Sales (R$M) 7,699 9,215 9,907 10,600 2,018 2,331 2,417 2,450

EBITDA adj (R$M) 2,082 3,013 3,239 3,452 586 749 832 845 Renan Prata, CFA