Confection Tracker: 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Confection Tracker: 2Q26

Equity Research

20 July 2026 | 2:19AM CDT

We analyze the latest industry data across the confection category and detail our Leah Jordan, CFA

+1(713)658-2691 | leah.jordan@gs.com

expectations for Buy-rated HSY and Buy-rated MDLZ heading into 2Q results. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Eli Thompson

Data points indicate mixed trends across confection: 1) moderating share trends +1(713)904-8289 |

eli.thompson@gs.com

for HSY and MDLZ globally; 2) softer 2Q sales across US confection, with a Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

reacceleration in recent weeks; 3) the recent increase in cocoa prices has largely

been tied to El Niño uncertainty, while fundamentals continue to suggest a supply

surplus, with lower costs still an expected tailwind for HSY/MDLZ; 4) HundredX

survey data revealed mixed trends for net purchase intent (NPI) and net promoter

score (NPS) for key HSY and MDLZ brands; 5) Google search trends across key brands

have largely tracked in line to better for HSY and MDLZ with notable outperformance

during key activation periods; and 6) recent company commentary revealed solid

demand across candy.

Reiterate Buy on HSY: We anticipate a relatively in-line print for 2Q with an EPS

estimate of $1.43 (vs FactSet consensus of $1.43), with the FY26 guide likely

reiterated. We attribute recent softness in the stock to softer consumption data

(including market share losses) and cocoa price volatility. However, we remain bullish

given HSY remains a 2H story as its innovation pipeline picks up, which should

support market share improvements (and scanner data has reaccelerated recently),

while its lower cocoa costs are already locked in (including into FY27), plus

confection remains an attractive category with growth outpacing total food as