GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 17, 2026

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GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 17, 2026

Equity Research

17 July 2026 | 1:29PM EDT

Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

macro issues we’re watching

Checking in on the B[R]ICs: Brazil pays, India rebounds, and China builds data

centers (whither Russia?)

n In Brazil, the US levied a 25% tariff on ~ 25% of Brazil imports to the US, covering

fewer-than-expected groups and actually lowering our Brazil’s effective tariff

forecast by 130bps, as Alberto Ramos discusses in “US Enacts New 25% Tariff on

a Wide Set of Brazilian Exports (Ramos).” Separately, Lina Thomas discusses how

rising fertilizer prices and potential geopolitical considerations could boost US

soybean exports over Brazil in “Risks to the US-Brazil-China Soybean Triangle.”

n In India, lower commodity prices, a stabilizing currency, and resilient domestic

growth should drive a 10% rebound in India stocks, writes Amorita Goel in “India

Strategy: Room To Rebound.” Key to watch:2Q earnings, bond inflows, and a

‘Super’ El Niño (see also “India: Capital Flow Measures: More a Liquidity Story

Than an FX Story”).

n In China, Kinger Lau continues to prefer A shares over H shares to capture an

ongoing preference for hardware suppliers to the datacenter over those stocks

that are building the AI models and funding the data center investment, as

discussed in “China Musings: Rotation Temptation.” Separately, Lisheng Wang

explains how a new centralized quasi-equity, quasi-fiscal funding initiative – the

New Policy-Based Financial Instrument (NBFI) is targeting high-tech

manufacturing, AI infrastructure, strategic supply chains, green transition, urban