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Data support tight-lipped pause: This week‘s incoming data and Fed communications reinforced expectations that the FOMC will remain on hold in July. Although June‘s surprisingly soft inflation estimates restore the disinflation narrative for now, supporting our extended pause baseline, r
研报英文原文证据摘录
Data support tight-lipped pause: This week‘s incoming data and Fed communications reinforced expectations that the FOMC will remain on hold in July. Although June‘s surprisingly soft inflation estimates restore the disinflation narrative for now, supporting our extended pause baseline, r
FICC Research
Economics
17 July 2026
US Outlook
Data support tight-lipped pause
This week's incoming data and Fed communications
reinforced expectations that the FOMC will remain on hold in
July. Although June's surprisingly soft inflation estimates Jonathan Millar +1 212 526 4876
restore the disinflation narrative for now, supporting our jonathan.millar@barclays.com
extended pause baseline, risks of a hawkish pivot are still BCI, US
intact. Marc+1 212Giannoni526 9373
marc.giannoni@barclays.com
We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2026 Extel Global Fixed-Income Research Survey in the BCI, US
USA: Economics & Strategy/General category. Pooja Sriram
+1 212 526 0713
• June inflation data were softer than expected and point to more-contained price pressures, pooja.sriram@barclays.com
placing our translation of core PCE price inflation at 0.19% m/m — 10bp slower than we had BCI, US
expected. However, we caution against over-interpreting this moderation, with idiosyncratic Colin Johanson
weakness in the shelter component exaggerating disinflationary pressures. +1 212 526 8536
colin.johanson@barclays.com
• Incoming data continue to point to a reacceleration of consumer spending in Q2, with our BCI, US
latest tracking consistent with a 2.5% q/q saar gain. However, with temporary influences from
the World Cup and the earlier-than-normal Amazon Prime Day set to fade, we continue to
expect consumer spending to moderate in the second half of this year.
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