Taylor Wimpey (tw.L): 1H26E preview: Weaker pricing and sales trends drive our PBT estimate -10% below consensus

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Taylor Wimpey (tw.L): 1H26E preview: Weaker pricing and sales trends drive our PBT estimate -10% below consensus

Goldman Sachs Taylor Wimpey (TW.L)

Key thesis points

1) Weaker pricing trends vs peers

Pricing in Taylor Wimpey’s order book weakened to -1% at the latest update in April

(from -0.5% at FY25), implying a current run rate of c.-1.5% per the company. This

softness has been primarily driven by regions most exposed to affordability pressures,

notably the South of England. In addition, pricing is being impacted by the run-off of

London apartment schemes, with nine developments across Greater London accounting

for c.13% of WIP (£270m as at 1H25). With these schemes expected to unwind through

to 2029, we see ongoing pricing pressure from this mix. We also note that incentives are

currently above peer levels, with recent company commentary indicating incentives at

above 6% vs peers such as Persimmon offering 4-5%.

Exhibit 1: We expect ASP growth to slow to 0% in FY26E due

to weak underlying pricing trends

Average selling prices and ASP growth (%)

370 6.0%

360 5.0%

350 4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

300 0.0%

290 -1.0%

280 -2.0%

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E

Overall ASP ASP growth

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Taylor Wimpey’s sales momentum appears to be under greater pressure relative to its

peers. The group’s recent trading update revealed a 5%y/y decline in the net private

sales rate (excluding bulk sales) to 0.72. While peers such as Bellway and Barratt

reported similar contractions, their reporting windows captured May and June,

respectively, periods characterised by heightened mortgage rate volatility that likely

depressed activity. Consequently, we expect Taylor Wimpey’s sales rate to face further