2Q26 Regulated Preview: A Back-End Weighted Summer

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2Q26 Regulated Preview: A Back-End Weighted Summer

Barclays | North America Power & Utilities

backlog update, where we think there could be a 4GW number; 2) mgmt recently issued

updated standalone estimates in its S-4, which we see pointing to a higher outlook (10.5% NI

CAGR). Shares in our view are due for a short term relative re-rating, and the 2Q report could

be an opportunity given they now trade at 18.0x P/E pro forma the deal. We show updated

pro-forma accretion from the deal in Figure 15, using the standalone S-4 estimates of NEE / D,

respectively.

• PCG preferred to EIX: We expect PCG to continue to deliver on its financial plan. After recent

outperformance by EIX over PCG, we anticipate there will be a mean reversion on earnings.

• CNP: We expect CenterPoint to increase its capex related to the Houston downtown

revitalization project. We anticipate the base amount ($850 million) of that project included

in the plan to increase by $200-500 million to $1,050-1,350 million total.

Names with more to prove this quarter:

• CMS: We are expecting year-over-year EPS to decrease significantly, from $0.71 in 2Q25 to

$0.33 in 2Q26. CMS will have to convince investors that it can have a strong second half and

deliver on its full-year 2026 EPS guidance.

• WEC: Addressing ORCL collateral concerns and overall commitment to Vantage will be

important commentary to watch, along with the Wisconsin election and current W-PSC GRC.

After the PSC deemed the VLC reconsideration request as denied, we are still waiting from

next steps from the companies.

Key Quarter EPS Beats and Misses

We see more misses than beats in the quarter but don't think the companies will guide lower in

FY26 ranges just yet. There are weather headwinds in the mid-west and a tougher comp from