Selloff of US memory stocks creates a compelling entry point

研报英文原文证据摘录

Selloff of US memory stocks creates a compelling entry point

Idea

July 20, 2026 07:12 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSemiconductors | North America Joseph Moore

Equity Analyst

Selloff of US memory stocks Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.comMason Wayne +1 212 761-7516

Research Associate

Mason.Wayne@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6012

creates a compelling entry point Shane Brett

Shane.Brett@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1022

This remains an unusual memory cycle, as data center strength Nicole Kozhukhov

is the only cause – which means that as we saw in April there ResearchNicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-1636

are mixed signals elsewhere that may be a false flag. Memory Ella Tulchinsky

isn't the best risk reward in our coverage – which we think is ResearchElla.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2222

NVDA/AVGO – but it's catching up fast.

Semiconductors

North America

Key Takeaways Industry View Attractive

Recent concerns – second derivative deceleration, higher capex, de-speccing –

were predictable a month ago

But this is not a normal cycle – memory is a bottleneck, increasingly THE

bottleneck, to AI builds (and agentic CPU builds), which appear durable

Result – shortages continue to intensify, with data center memory prices up 25%

+ in 3q

That's deceleration on some level from higher 2q increases but that has been

obvious

LTAs and de-speccing could flatten the amplitude of the cycle vs. inflated

expectations – but increase duration, which is likely better for stocks in the long

run

Memory stocks are crowded, and with the unusual nature of this cycle periods of

drawdowns seem inevitable – but we are buyers on that weakness. In a cycle

entirely driven by data center, there are going to be mixed signals in consumer, PC,