Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Rio Tinto Limited (RIO.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

WAIO Shipments 326 328 336 345 29 Jul 2026 Half Year 2026 Rio Tinto Ltd Earnings Release

Iron Ore Price (US$/t) 102 99 93 94

WAIO Operating Cost (US$/t) 38.6 41.4 39.5 40.1

Copper production - Mined (kt) 852 862 912 996

Cu Price (US$/lb) 4.56 6.11 5.85 5.67

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Commodity prices, currency, and costs RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Stronger-than-expected commodity prices or

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE depreciation in the AUD/USD Sales / 64,055

Faster delivery of growth projects or stronger Revenue 58,752 69,498

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland asset sale proceeds than we currently expect (US$, mn) 62,940 0-10% China and India

0-10% Europe ex UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

0-10% Japan Renewed operating challenges in the iron ore 29,962

0-10% Latin America business, which could affect volumes and/or EBITDA 25,785 31,872

0-10% UK cost performance (US$, mn) 29,137

10-20% North America Weaker-than-expected commodity prices,

50-60% Mainland China including lower iron ore and/or aluminium

8.07

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate prices EPS 7.01 10.13

View explanation of regional hierarchies here (US$)

8.33

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

MS ALPHA MODELS

Inst. Owners, % Active 47.3% 4.88

DPS

4.12 5.92

2/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research (US$)

MOST Horizon 4.81

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is 21.2

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored ROE

18.0 24.9

Quintile (%)

20.8

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research 3