Thailand Beverages: Energy Drink Less Price War, More Cost Pain; 2Q26E Preview

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Thailand Beverages: Energy Drink Less Price War, More Cost Pain; 2Q26E Preview

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19 Jul 2026 19:27:24 ET │ 14 pages

Thailand Beverages

Energy Drink Less Price War, More Cost Pain; 2Q26E Preview

CITI'S TAKE

We remain negative on the Thai energy drink sector in 2Q-3Q26 as cost

inflation starts to flow through earnings amid continued uncertainty in

CLMV markets. We are less concerned about domestic pricing

competition despite the third-largest player’s price rollback in Mar 2026 Preenapa DetchsriAC

as both OSP and CBG domestic beverage sales are expected to grow YoY +66-2-079-3609

for two consecutive quarters. The Thai Help Thai campaign is unlikely to preenapa.detchsri@citi.com

materially boost sales volume in 2Q26, but channel migration toward

traditional trade should modestly support F&B producer margins in 3Q26.

Cost pressure remains the key earnings drag particularly for CBG given

aluminum accounts for c.10-15% of COGS. We expect OSP to post modest

+6%YoY earnings growth supported by capacity rationalization and

marketing discipline, while CBG earnings likely decline -25%YoY despite

QoQ CLMV recovery.

Channel mix shift supports margins; Implication from Thai help Thai campaign -

We view the campaign as more of a channel-shift catalyst than a consumption

stimulus, with spending likely migrating from modern trade to traditional trade. This

shift is marginally positive for food and beverage producers, as traditional trade

typically offers higher margins, providing some support to profitability during the

campaign period. In addition, we view that producers can indirectly save

promotional spending during the campaign. We expect 3Q26 margin of OSP and

CBG to be moderately supported by a more favorable channel mix. CBG distribution