Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (TLX.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Precision Medicine revenue (US$,

622 770 836 960

mn)

Therapeutics revenue (US$, mn) 9 10 11 11

Research and development

171 224 243 262

expenses (US$, mn)

Gross margin (%) 53.1 54.6 55.5 56.7

EBITDA margin (%) 4.9 5.5 5.8 8.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Product sales for approved products RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Reimbursement in key regions New formulations and expanded indications for

Progress and results in relation to late-stage approved products Sales / 962

candidates Positive clinical trial results and regulatory Revenue 954 1,006

Competitive intensity from approved approval of late-stage pipeline candidates (US$, mn) 968

products/late-stage candidates Favourable reimbursement of recently

approved products

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

38 99

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn) 60 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% China and India Delays or failure to meet primary endpoints for

0-10% Europe ex UK late-stage candidates (4)

90-100% North America Increased competitive intensity/regulatory Net income (10) 58

approval of competing products (US$, mn)

Changes to the US reimbursement 8

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

environmentView explanation of regional hierarchies here

(0.01)

EPS

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (US$) (0.03) 0.15MS ALPHA MODELS

0.02

Inst. Owners, % Active 38.3%

4/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile

Morgan Stanley Research 3