REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward Update
UpdateM
Risk Reward – Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (TLX.AX)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e
Precision Medicine revenue (US$,
622 770 836 960
mn)
Therapeutics revenue (US$, mn) 9 10 11 11
Research and development
171 224 243 262
expenses (US$, mn)
Gross margin (%) 53.1 54.6 55.5 56.7
EBITDA margin (%) 4.9 5.5 5.8 8.2
INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Product sales for approved products RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e
Reimbursement in key regions New formulations and expanded indications for
Progress and results in relation to late-stage approved products Sales / 962
candidates Positive clinical trial results and regulatory Revenue 954 1,006
Competitive intensity from approved approval of late-stage pipeline candidates (US$, mn) 968
products/late-stage candidates Favourable reimbursement of recently
approved products
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA
38 99
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn) 60 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% China and India Delays or failure to meet primary endpoints for
0-10% Europe ex UK late-stage candidates (4)
90-100% North America Increased competitive intensity/regulatory Net income (10) 58
approval of competing products (US$, mn)
Changes to the US reimbursement 8
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
environmentView explanation of regional hierarchies here
(0.01)
EPS
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (US$) (0.03) 0.15MS ALPHA MODELS
0.02
Inst. Owners, % Active 38.3%
4/5 3 Month
MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is
the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored
Quintile
Morgan Stanley Research 3
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