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Post EU ETS review: Slower carbon-cost growth, greater rewards for decarbonisation; Buy Holcim, Heidelberg
研报英文原文证据摘录
Post EU ETS review: Slower carbon-cost growth, greater rewards for decarbonisation; Buy Holcim, Heidelberg
Equity Research
20 July 2026 | 5:28AM BST
EUROPE HEAVYSIDE MATERIALS
Post EU ETS review: Slower carbon-cost growth, greater rewards for
decarbonisation; Buy Holcim, Heidelberg
On 17 July, the European Commission released its review of the Emissions Trading Ben Rada Martin
+44(20)7051-0800 |
System (ETS). The proposal confirms a more industry-supportive framework beyond ben.radamartin@gs.com
Goldman Sachs International
2030, slowing the growth in carbon costs while increasing support for industrial
Natasha Phillipsdecarbonisation. We see mixed implications for decarbonisation leaders in our +44(20)7051-4705 |
coverage (Holcim, Heidelberg). While a slower rise in carbon costs reduces the natasha.phillips@gs.comGoldman Sachs International
relative value of their cost advantage, new funding mechanisms and Patrick Creuset
investment-linked free allocation should disproportionately benefit companies +33(1)4212-1380patrick.creuset@gs.com|
already investing in decarbonisation. For Buzzi, the key risk is retaining allocation if GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris
future investment intensity remains below peers. Key points:
Investment-linked free allocation supports those investing in decarbonisation
(positive): From 2031, free allowances will increasingly be linked to decarbonisation
plans and investment. We view HEIG and HOLN as best positioned to retain free
allocation, while laggards could see 15-80% lower 2031 EBITDA/t if they fail to meet
the new requirements.
Carbon-cost pressure rises more slowly (negative for leaders): A slower
phase-out of allowances and lower ETS scarcity should reduce carbon-cost pressure
across the industry.
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