The Morning Call: The Week Ahead:20-24 July

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The Morning Call: The Week Ahead:20-24 July

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20 Jul 2026 02:00:14 ET │ 12 pages

The Morning Call

The Week Ahead: 20-24 July

CITI'S TAKE

Jamie Searle AC

We discuss the key macro events for the week ahead, a summary of our +44-20-7986-9493

latest rates views, and upcoming supply for EMU-11, UK, and the US. jamie.searle@citi.com

Andrea Appeddu ACKey events — Andy Burnham set to take oath as UK PM (Monday). Central banks:

ECB (Thursday). Economic data: US/EA/UK PMI flash (Friday). US weekly ADP +39-02-8906-4316

(Tuesday), initial jobless (Thursday), U. of Mich. sentiment (Friday). EA German PPI andrea.appeddu@citi.com

(Monday); German ZEW survey, ECB bank lending survey, French retail sales, AC Jussi Harju, CFASpanish trade balance (Tuesday); French manf. confidence, EA consumer confidence

(Thursday); German GfK consumer confidence, ECB survey of professional +49-69-1366-5655

forecasters, ECB 1-3yr CPI expectations (Friday). UK labour market/PSNB (Tuesday), jussi.harju@citi.com

CPI (Wednesday), GfK consumer confidence/retail sales/DMP (Friday). Friday’s AC Puja V Sawantratings: DBRS on Belgium.

+91-22-4277-5155

Strategy views — Since the June ECB meeting, the additional tightening priced in puja.sawant@citi.com

by year-end has dropped below 20bp on soft inflation data at the beginning of July

Damilola Lanre-Ojobefore jumping back above 40bp on a fresh bout of Middle East tensions. The re-

emergence of the latter means that the association between oil prices and € front- +442079863918

end that featured so heavily in March, April, and May has staged a comeback (Figure damilola.lanreojo@citi.com

2). Top-left vol has climbed back to late May levels and while fading rhs tail risk

seems appealing on a terminal level, we don’t advise being short gamma against the