Global Metals & Mining: Marketing feedback - state of play on investor sentiment

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Metals & Mining: Marketing feedback - state of play on investor sentiment

business along with earnings upside from latest cost savings guidance. Our NPV is calculated

based on long-term equilibrium commodity prices and key assumptions available in our Metals & Mining Strategy reports.

Risks

We consider the following risks to the investment case and acievement of our target price. We would highlight in particular that

it is a diversified mining company, with a large level of cyclicality driven by its production of coal, zinc, and copper.

Consequently, its operating ris is higher than in other major diversified mining houses. Glencore's business is sensitive to state

mining policies, hedging and foreign exchange, cost pressures, country/politicla risk, M&A and infrastructure and operational

risks. Glencore's desire to grow via acquisition also brings acquisition risk and project delivery risk.

If the impact on the company from any of these factor proves to be more positive/negative than we anticipate, the stock will

likely outperform/underperform our target price

Kazatomprom JSC

(KAPq.L; US$66.8; 1; 17 Jul 26; 16:30)

Valuation

Our target price of 97 $/ADR is based on the average of our DCF-based SoTP NPV valuation and our EV/EBITDA valuation.

The NPV approach provides a longer-term view of normalised returns. We calculate the DCF-based enterprise value using a

WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth rate of 2%. Thereafter, we reduce the EV by the end-2025 net debt and minorities to arrive

at the NPV.

We apply a multiple of 10x to our forecast EBITDA, slightly ahead of the stock's long-term average multiple, which we believe is

consistent with Citi commodity team's bulish outlook for Uranium prices over the medium term.