Glencore PLC (GLEN.L): ‘22 redux for coal: Pushbacks and Debates

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Glencore PLC (GLEN.L): ‘22 redux for coal: Pushbacks and Debates

Viewpoint |

25 Jun 2026 09:26:10 ET │ 19 pages

Glencore PLC (GLEN.L)

’22 redux for coal: Pushbacks and Debates

CITI'S TAKE

GLEN’s share price is down 10% MTD, but the spot prices for its commodity mix

are up 4%. Most of the feedback from our note highlighting upside in the coal Buyprice and GLEN’s leverage to that is on the impact of lower gas prices (due to

easing of Middle East tensions) on the thermal coal price and newsflow Price (25 Jun 26 12:34) £5.21

(SXCoal, 3rd June 2026) on the restart of coal production in China from mines Target price £7.70

where coal production had been suspended. We think the impact of arguably Expected share price return 47.8%structurally lower exports of thermal coal from Indonesia, the potential impact

of lower Iranian steel production on coking coal, El Nino’s possible impact Expected dividend yield 3.8%

lasting into ’27 and the falling Indian IPP inventory on thermal coal prices is all Expected total return 51.6%

underappreciated in our view. Details in the note.

Market Cap £61,141M

US$80,911MGLEN down 10% MTD while its commodity mix is up 4% — GLEN’s share price is

down 10% MTD, but copper prices are relatively flat. Newcastle coal price is up 10%,

Richards Bay coal price is down 3% and coking coal price is up 5%.

Key aspects debated and our view — a) Impact of lower gas prices on coal: After

Price Performancegoing up 80% since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, LNG prices have

pulled back 18% on 15-19th of June and have stabilized at levels >50% above pre- (RIC: GLEN.L, BB: GLEN LN)

conflict levels. Coal prices had gone up only 15-25% since the beginning of the

conflict and have not corrected materially since. If current gas prices hold then there