EQT AB (EQTAB.ST) Post IH26 - Sizing Consensus Upgrades

研报英文原文证据摘录

EQT AB (EQTAB.ST) Post IH26 - Sizing Consensus Upgrades

EQT AB (EQTAB.ST)

17 July 2026 Citi Research

achievable, recognition from BPEA VIII and Infra IX would require stronger value creation and realisation activity than

currently embedded in our forecasts.

Thinking Through Implications For Consensus – For fee-related earnings (FRE), AI Infrastructure could contribute roughly

€40m of incremental management fees versus consensus forecasts. In addition, a larger-than-expected Scaleup fund (€7bn

versus the €5bn target) could add another €25m. Combined, we estimate €65–80m of upside to management fee revenues,

representing around 2–3% upside to consensus fee-related revenues. That said, consensus cost assumptions may be too

conservative, with EQT now expecting to hit its 55%+ FRE margin from 2H27. Overall, stronger revenues are likely to be partly

offset by higher operating expenses, implying low-single-digit FRE upgrades. For performance-related earnings (PRE), the

additional €200–260m of investment income could drive roughly 10% EBITDA upside versus consensus. Together with carry

recognition of Infra V in FY28, we estimate PRE could reach €1.1–1.2bn in FY28 versus current consensus of approximately

€0.95bn. Overall, we estimate around 8% EBITDA upside for FY27E and approximately 16% for FY28E. Our existing estimates

are currently below consensus.

Tougher Fundraising Environment; Strong Pipeline – EQT now expects €140bn fundraising over the fundraising cycle, with

additional €10-15bn vs original guidance driven by additional products launched that were not part of original guidance, and

despite a tougher fundraising environment. Investment pipeline remains “attractive” and “diversified” while the 6-12 month