Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Tariffs, USMCA, Chile Reform, Colombia Tax Reform, DomRep Inflation

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Tariffs, USMCA, Chile Reform, Colombia Tax Reform, DomRep Inflation

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17 Jul 2026 08:55:39 ET │ 20 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Tariffs, USMCA, Chile Reform, Colombia Tax Reform, DomRep

Inflation Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, +44-20-7986-9757

Argentina, Costa Rica and Dominican Republic. luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — We are heading into a relatively a quiet week for LatAm. Globally, Esteban Tamayo AC

stocks edged lower on the back of a selloff in chipmakers stocks. Strikes continue in esteban.tamayo@citi.com

the Middle East, keeping oil prices higher (Bloomberg, July 17th). AC Leonardo Porto

LatAm Strategy Trades — We went long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current leonardo.porto@citi.com

macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link).

We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL and Paulo Lopes AC

TRY vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders carry (link). paulo.lopes@citi.com

Brazil — US government announces decision to tax Brazilian products by further Thais Ortega AC

25%. The Ministry of Finance now expects CPI inflation at 5.1% in 2026, above the thais.ortega@citi.com

upper limit of the target. Another disappointing performance of retail sales in AC Felipe JuncalMay. Services survey also lost momentum in May, reinforcing economic slowdown in

the 2Q26. felipe.juncal@citi.com

Mexico — US seeks stricter USMCA rules to curb Mexico’s export growth. Private Donato Guarino AC

consumption remains on a recovery path, although June momentum looks softer donato.guarino@citi.com