1H26 Preview: Sector-leading contracts sales growth though margin pressure still lingers; Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H26 Preview: Sector-leading contracts sales growth though margin pressure still lingers; Buy

Equity Research

17 July 2026 | 6:58AM CST

CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT (0688.HK)

1H26 Preview: Sector-leading contracts sales growth though margin

pressure still lingers; Buy

We update our estimates by 1) on positive side – reflecting stronger-than-expected Yi Wang, CFA

+86(21)2401-8930 |

sales performance in 1H26 (+12% yoy), we raise our 2026E contract sales estimate yi.wang@goldmansachs.cn

Goldman Sachs (China) Securities

by 11% to Rmb265bn, implying flattish/+6% yoy in 2H and full-year 26E, ahead of Company Limited

coverage stronger SOE average of -7%/-4%. As a result, we revise up our DP revenue Shi Xu

forecast by an average 2% for 2026E-28E, with total revenue expected to see only a +86(21)2401-8929shi.x.xu@goldmansachs.cn|

modest decline; 2) on negative side – we lower 2026E-28E DP gross margin by average GoldmanCompany SachsLimited(China) Securities

1pp and now expecting 14pp GPM for 2026E, which is closer to the mid-point of Kaiyan Jing

management’s beginning-of-year estimates (i.e 13%-15%) amid ongoing pricing +86(21)2411-8092kaiyan.jing@goldmansachs.cn|

pressure outside of top-tier cities. That said, we believe COLI remains one of the GoldmanCompany SachsLimited(China) Securities

best-positioned developers in our coverage, supported by a high-quality landbank

(over 80% Tier-1/2 exposure and lowest aged inventory among coverage), limiting

near-term impairment risk. As a result, we lower our core earnings estimate by

average 5%, with 2026E core EPS expected to decline 6%, followed by recovery from

2027E as margins stabilize. Our revised topline and core earnings forecasts are 5%

and 4% below Datastream consensus, respectively, and our 12-month NAV-based