OEM/Supplier Preview: Checks stronger than estimates, F & GM well positioned

研报英文原文证据摘录

OEM/Supplier Preview: Checks stronger than estimates, F & GM well positioned

Suppliers well positioned as customer schedules hold

Supplier commentary points to customer schedules holding up despite lower S&P

production forecasts, leaving the group well positioned into 2Q earnings. Raw material

pressure remains a risk, although the near-term impact appears manageable, with costs

largely embedded in guides and potential offsets from performance initiatives. More

specifically, LEA intraquarter updates implies the removal of the low end of guidance

range and upside to original E-systems margin expectations while LEA had already

embedded ~$20mm of full-year commodity headwind. We raise our 2Q EBITDA estimate

to $455mm (from $440mm) to reflect better North America mix and stable customer

schedules. We do not believe Aptiv has seen any change to customer schedules and

should be able to offset incremental commodity headwinds through performance

actions, while its embedded 2H revenue acceleration appears reasonable and includes

100bps improvement in vehicle production, 150bps from annualizing F-150 production

disruption and program cancellations in China, and 300bps from program launches and

ramps. We lower our DCH 2Q EBITDA estimate by $7mm to reflect modest friction costs

tied to the short-lived UAW strike in early June. Our ADNT 2026 EBITDA estimates

remain unchanged given no significant change to customer production schedules. We

also expect non-auto growth opportunities to be a key earnings topic, with BWA and

APTV likely leading the discussion around data centers and other adjacent markets.

RIVN focus on R2 execution after recent guidance raise

We expect investor focus across EV OEMs to remain company-specific this quarter, with