Wireline & Wireless Telecom Services: Key debates and metrics into 2Q

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Wireline & Wireless Telecom Services: Key debates and metrics into 2Q

T-Mobile

We reiterate our Buy rating on TMUS and our $220 price objective. When TMUS

reported 1Q results, it shared 2Q expectations for service revenue growth of

approximately 9% y/y to approximately $19bn and core adj. EBITDA growth of

approximately 10% y/y to approximately $9.4bn. At conferences during the quarter,

TMUS remained confident in its upgraded 2026 guidance due to strong trends

throughout the quarter. Commentary was generally focused on underlying drivers that

support 2026 guidance rather than pointing investors to specific 2Q KPIs. Management

reports no disruptions to its growth trajectory from fiber bundling/convergence

strategies of its competitors and it views LEO as a complementary technology rather

than a terrestrial wireless competitor.

At conferences, TMUS also reaffirmed its ARPA growth outlook of 2.5% - 3.0% in

2026E. The key growth drivers include new customers joining at higher ARPA, adding

more products per account (lines, broadband, devices), and selective ‘more-for-more’

pricing optimizations used as a secondary driver. Conference commentary remained

bullish on FWA and its 15mn target by 2030. The product is viewed as a durable

technology and management highlights a 50% increase in network speeds while

delivering strong subscriber growth.

T-Mobile’s strategy is centered on widening its differentiation versus peers while

emphasizing best network, best value and best customer experience. T-Mobile now

offers leading network quality while maintaining the lowest price front book and back

book, allowing the company to attract higher-value customers without relying on

unsustainable promotional behavior. Growth opportunities remain broad-based across