Progressive June 2026 Direct policycount growth posts a very weak +6k over prior month

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Progressive June 2026 Direct policycount growth posts a very weak +6k over prior month

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Progressive

June 2026 Direct policycount growth posts

a very weak +6k over prior month

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 308.00 USD | Price: 205.22 USD

Direct growth arguably the second slowest June ever 16 July 2026

With the exception of June 2023, when Progressive was narrowing its new business Equity

funnel as it took aggressive re-pricing actions, June is the slowest June on record adding

just 4bps to policycount vs. May 2026. While April and May were less robust than in

Key Changesrecent prior years, they were the “normal” kind of slower growth. The deceleration in

June Direct growth seems anomalous, but we have no particular cause to point to. (US$) Previous Current

Price Obj. 313.00 308.00

2026E EPS 18.55 18.20Agency growth appears healthy, perhaps accelerating

Complicating this narrative is the fact that Agency policycount, which added a net 35k 2027E EPS 18.80 18.30

customers in June, does not show competitive weakness. It is very rare that Agency 2028E EPS 20.00 19.65

growth outpaces Direct (basically only in 2H16-2017 during the first wave of the

homeowners’ launch and in 2Q23 during aggressive re-pricing), but this happened in Joshua Shanker

Research Analyst

2Q26 and seems poised to persist as Progressive launches its 2H26 New Business BofAS

Commission Initiative, which will pay a 5% bonus commission to agents sourcing new +1 347 821 9017 joshua.shanker@bofa.com

customers. A slight decline in EPS forecast largely reflects this higher (but temporary)

Cyril Onyango

commission boost as well as a modest lift to our tax rate forecast. Research Analyst

BofAS

CPI data may overstate pricing competitiveness cyril.onyango@bofa.com

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