Focus remains on Ingrezza growth and Crenessity launch execution; Reiterate Buy

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Focus remains on Ingrezza growth and Crenessity launch execution; Reiterate Buy

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Neurocrine Biosciences

Focus remains on Ingrezza growth and

Crenessity launch execution; Reiterate Buy

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 199.00 USD | Price: 172.04 USD

Ingrezza growth trends remain key focus for 2Q 15 July 2026

NBIX reported strong 1Q Ingrezza sales of $656.9mn ahead of Street expectations, Equity

citing a record number of new patient starts and double-digit y/y script volume growth.

On the 2Q call, we will focus on management commentary regarding the durability of

recent script volume growth and whether management continues to view 1Q as

establishing a higher baseline for FY26 performance. Recall, management indicated they

would revisit FY26 guidance following 1H26, and we look for updates on NBIX’s

confidence around the upper end of the current $2.7-2.8bn guidance range. We currently

model 2Q Ingrezza sales of $690mn (cons: $686mn) and FY26 Ingrezza sales of $2.79bn

(cons: $2.79bn). We reiterate our Buy with $199 PO. Key Changes

Crenessity survey supports durable adoption trends (US$)2026E Rev (m) Previous3,972.2 Current3,972.6

We conducted a survey of 20 HCPs treating 622 CAH patients to better understand 2027E Rev (m) 4,474.4 4,517.9

2Q26 Crenessity usage trends (see inside for more). Our HCPs reported 192 cumulative 2028E Rev (m) 5,080.7 5,123.3

scripts since launch (~31% penetration). Our respondents expect to continue to write 2026E EPS 10.44 10.18

additional scripts as they estimate up to 51% of their patients could be on therapy at 2027E EPS 12.44 12.48

peak, which we note is consistent with our prior surveys despite a different physician 2028E EPS 18.96 18.89

base. Additionally, reimbursement remained favorable across both adult and pediatric