Ashmore Group PLC: Reducing earnings into results post AUM update

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Ashmore Group PLC: Reducing earnings into results post AUM update

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Ashmore Group PLC

Reducing earnings into results post AUM

update

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 170.00 GBp | Price: 216.00 GBp

Reiterate Underperform post AUM update 15 July 2026

We reiterate our Underperform rating with a new PO of 170p (from 175p) as we cut EPS Equity

1-5% after the June AUM update. ASHM reported AUM of $54.0bn which was 1% below

our estimate. Although Q426 (June) flows beat at $1.3bn, $0.9bn came from low margin

Key Changesoverlay assets. Excluding this, net flows were slightly below our forecast of $0.5bn. EPS

also falls for weaker US$/GBP and marking-to-market as EM debt returns QTD (Sept) (GBp) Previous Current

are flattish and equities negative. On our new estimates, ASHM continues to trade at a Price Obj. 175.00 170.00

significant premium to the European/ UK asset management sector on 23x cal 2027 PE. 2026E Rev (£m) 141.2 138.8

We expect flows to remain positive given EM momentum, but valuation already assumes 2027E Rev (£m) 159.6 152.1

a much sharper recovery than our estimate of ~7% ann. net new money growth. 2028E Rev (£m) 176.8 168.5

2026E EPS 16.23 16.04

2027E EPS 9.12 8.63What to look for into FY26 results on Sept 7th

We expect ASHM to report FY26 (June) adj. EBITDA of £42m (-20% YoY) and diluted EPS 2028E EPS 10.42 10.00

of 16.0p (+36%) which is supported by strong seed capital gains (Exhibit 1).

Management fee margin is forecasted to remain relatively stable HoH in H226 at Hubert Lam >>

Research Analyst

~34bps as pressure from overlay inflows are offset by higher margin equity AUM MLI (UK)

growth. We see limited upside to performance fees at £3m given the lack of alternative +44 20 7996 7112 hubert.lam@bofa.com

realisations.