How much could NGLs grow from the unlocked Permian gas? Who benefits?

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How much could NGLs grow from the unlocked Permian gas? Who benefits?

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream

How much could NGLs grow from the

unlocked Permian gas? Who benefits?

Industry Overview

Permian gas pipelines + oil growth doubles NGL growth 14 July 2026

Our last outlook for Permian NGL growth was 5%/yr growth, run off the long-term GOR Equity

growth in the basin. On 2025 wet gas volume of 29bcfd, this drove wet gas growth of United States

1.5bcfd/yr at flat oil production, or NGL growth of ~200kbd/yr. The past 18 months, Oil & Gas

Permian GOR growth has already accelerated to 7%, even in the face of gas egress Jean Ann Salisbury

constraints, suggesting it could move up more once gas pipelines come on, mostly in the Research Analyst

2H of this year. Combined with a modicum of oil growth from the tick up in Permian rigs BofAS+1 646 855-1470

(~150kbd/yr oil growth through 2030), we now forecast ~3.2bcfd/yr of wet gas growth, jeanann.salisbury@bofa.com

or 415kbd of Permian NGLs/year (~9% growth), double our est from last year. Naomi Marfatia

Research Analyst

BofAS

naomi.marfatia@bofa.comFull chain margin averages $9/bbl EBITDA

Using FERC filings and estimations of gathering and processing, frac, and export rates James Larkin, CFA

for the large midstream companies, we believe the average EBITDA/bbl for all four BofAS

services (which all incremental NGLs will need), is $9/bbl. This suggests a total annual james.r.larkin@bofa.com

TAM of ~$1.4b to the NGL midstreamers out of the basin. Conor Fitzpatrick

conor.fitzpatrick@bofa.comWho has leverage to this trend?

We would expect this to be split (roughly) by processing market share footprint. TRGP

has 26% market share of Permian processing, followed by ET and EPD at ~15-16%, and