Colombia: Higher Headline Inflation Expectations but Lower Core; Final 50bp Hike in July to 12.50%; Lower Growth Forecasts

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Colombia: Higher Headline Inflation Expectations but Lower Core; Final 50bp Hike in July to 12.50%; Lower Growth Forecasts

Economics Research

16 July 2026 | 4:37PM EDT

Colombia: Higher Headline Inflation Expectations but Lower Core; Final

50bp Hike in July to 12.50%; Lower Growth Forecasts

BOTTOM LINE: The central bank’s July survey of economists revealed increases in Santiago Tellez

+1(212)855-0367 |

end-2026 and end-2027 headline inflation expectations, likely reflecting anticipated santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

El Niño-related disruptions in food and energy, as core inflation expectations

declined across all horizons. Median headline inflation expectations for end-2026

rose by 13bp to 6.61%, and for end-2027 also by 13bp to 4.95%. Conversely, the

rolling one-year ahead headline inflation expectations declined by 9bp to 5.5%, and

two-year ahead expectations by -11bp to 4.1%, approaching the upper end of the

3±1% target band. Core ex-food & regulated inflation expectations declined across

all horizons. The median analyst sees the MPC delivering a final 50bp rate hike in July,

for a terminal rate forecast of 12.5%. Thereafter, the median analyst sees the cutting

cycle starting in 1Q27 with -25bp moves in March and June, more forceful action in

July (-50bp), and a cumulative continuous cutting cycle of 325bp to 9.25% by July

2028. Relative to the Apr. ’26 survey, the median real GDP growth forecasts were

downgraded: 2026 by -10bp to 2.4%, and 2027 also by -10bp to 2.3%. The overall

fiscal deficit forecasts remained flat: 2026 at 6.7% and 2027 at 6.0%.

DETAILS:

1. According to the central bank’s July survey, median headline and the

policy-relevant core ex-food & regulated inflation expectations for June tracked

at 0.31%/0.29% respectively.